Darrell Duffie

A comprehensive account of how government deficits and debt drive inflation Where do inflation and deflation ultimately come from? The fiscal theory of the price level offers a simple answer: Prices adjust so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of taxes less spending. Inflation breaks out when people don’t expect the government to fully repay its debts. The fiscal theory is well suited to today’s economy: Financial innovation undermines money demand, and central banks don’t control the money supply or aggressively change interest rates, invalidating classic theories, while large debts and deficits threaten inflation and constrain monetary policy. This book presents a comprehensive account of this important theory from one of its leading developers and advocates. John Cochrane aims to make fiscal theory useful as a conceptual framework and modeling tool, and for analyzing history and policy. He merges fiscal theory with standard models in which central banks set interest rates, giving a novel account of monetary policy. He generalizes the theory to explain data and make realistic predictions. For example, inflation decreases in recessions despite deficits because discount rates fall, raising the value of debt; specifying that governments promise to partially repay debt avoids classic puzzles and allows the theory to apply at all times, not just during periods of high inflation. Cochrane offers an extensive rethinking of monetary doctrines and institutions through the eyes of fiscal theory, and analyzes the era of zero interest rates and post-pandemic inflation. Filled with research by Cochrane and others, The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level offers important new insights about fiscal and monetary policy.

The first swap was executed over thirty years ago. Since then, the interest rate swaps and other derivative markets have grown and diversified in phenomenal directions. Derivatives are used today by a myriad of institutional investors for the purposes of risk management, expressing a view on the market, and pursuing market opportunities that are otherwise unavailable using more traditional financial instruments. In this volume, Howard Corb explores the concepts behind interest rate swaps and the many derivatives that evolved from them. Corb's book uniquely marries academic rigor and real-world trading experience in a compelling, readable style. While it is filled with sophisticated formulas and analysis, the volume is geared toward a wide range of readers searching for an in-depth understanding of these markets. It serves as both a textbook for students and a must-have reference book for practitioners. Corb helps readers develop an intuitive feel for these products and their use in the market, providing a detailed introduction to more complicated trades and structures. Through examples of financial structuring, readers will come away with an understanding of how derivatives products are created and how they can be deconstructed and analyzed effectively.