Michael Mauboussin

Decisions, books, investing, mental models, complex adaptive systems, skill, luck. Adjunct Professor @Columbia_Biz Chairman of the Board of Trustees @sfiscience

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Book Recommendations:

MM

Recommended by Michael Mauboussin

This is old-school @MichaelEPorter. Joan Magretta wrote a great book that summarizes much of his work: https://t.co/o3JPaWAUaR https://t.co/gM48i6dOuo (from X)

Competitive advantage. The value chain. Five forces. Industry structure. Differentiation. Relative cost. If you want to understand how companies achieve and sustain competitive success, Michael Porter’s frameworks are the foundation. But while everyone in business may know Porter’s name, many managers misunderstand and misuse his concepts. Understanding Michael Porter sets the record straight, providing the first concise, accessible summary of Porter’s revolutionary thinking. Written with Porter’s full cooperation by Joan Magretta, his former editor at Harvard Business Review, this new book delivers fresh, clear examples to illustrate and update Porter’s ideas. Magretta uses her wide business experience to translate Porter’s powerful insights into practice and to correct the most common misconceptions about them—for instance, that competition is about being unique, not being the best; that it is a contest over profits, not a battle between rivals; that strategy is about choosing to make some customers unhappy, not being all things to all customers. An added feature is an original Q&A with Porter himself, which includes answers to managers’ FAQs. Eminently readable, this book will enable every manager in your organization to grasp Porter’s ideas—and swiftly deploy them to drive your company’s success.

MM

Recommended by Michael Mauboussin

Quit, by @AnnieDuke, is a great book that I recommend highly. I learned a lot reading it, and picked up useful tidbits even in areas of discussion that were familiar to me. A better understanding of quitting is valuable in nearly all domains. https://t.co/koOi6ABn8j (from X)

From the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets comes a toolkit for mastering the skill of quitting to achieve greater success Business leaders, with millions of dollars down the drain, struggle to abandon a new app or product that just isn’t working. Governments, caught in a hopeless conflict, believe that the next tactic will finally be the one that wins the war. And in our own lives, we persist in relationships or careers that no longer serve us. Why? According to Annie Duke, in the face of tough decisions, we’re terrible quitters. And that is significantly holding us back. In Quit, Duke teaches you how to get good at quitting. Drawing on stories from elite athletes like Mount Everest climbers, founders of leading companies like Stewart Butterfield, the CEO of Slack, and top entertainers like Dave Chappelle, Duke explains why quitting is integral to success, as well as strategies for determining when to hold em, and when to fold em, that will save you time, energy, and money. You’ll learn: How the paradox of quitting influences decision making: If you quit on time, you will feel you quit earlyWhat forces work against good quitting behavior, such as escalation commitment, desire for certainty, and status quo biasHow to think in expected value in order to make better decisions, as well as other best practices, such as increasing flexibility in goal-setting, establishing “quitting contracts,” anticipating optionality, and conducting premortems and backcasts Whether you’re facing a make-or-break business decision or life-altering personal choice, mastering the skill of quitting will help you make the best next move.

MM

Recommended by Michael Mauboussin

3/Will Thorndike's book, "The Outsiders," was a deep influence on the prize and selection process. Stiritz called it a "classic" in his acceptance speech. It is, and should at the top of the reading list for CEOs and investors. Bonus: Will's a great guy. https://t.co/Ih1eoUPSAe (from X)

“An outstanding book about CEOs who excelled at capital allocation.” — Warren Buffett #1 on Warren Buffett’s Recommended Reading List, Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Letter, 2012 Named one of “19 Books Billionaire Charlie Munger Thinks You Should Read” in Business Insider. “A book that details the extraordinary success of CEOs who took a radically different approach to corporate management.” — Charlie Munger, Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Corporation “Thorndike explores the importance of thoughtful capital allocation through the stories of eight successful CEOs. A good read for any business leader but especially those willing to chart their own course.” — Michael Dell, chairman of the board of directors and chief executive officer of Dell What makes a successful CEO? Most people call to mind a familiar definition: “a seasoned manager with deep industry expertise.” Others might point to the qualities of today’s so-called celebrity CEOs—charisma, virtuoso communication skills, and a confident management style. But what really matters when you run an organization? What is the hallmark of exceptional CEO performance? Quite simply, it is the returns for the shareholders of that company over the long term. In this refreshing, counterintuitive book, author Will Thorndike brings to bear the analytical wisdom of a successful career in investing, closely evaluating the performance of companies and their leaders. You will meet eight individualistic CEOs whose firms’ average returns outperformed the S&P 500 by a factor of twenty—in other words, an investment of $10,000 with each of these CEOs, on average, would have been worth over $1.5 million twenty-five years later. You may not know all their names, but you will recognize their companies: General Cinema, Ralston Purina, The Washington Post Company, Berkshire Hathaway, General Dynamics, Capital Cities Broadcasting, TCI, and Teledyne. In The Outsiders, you’ll learn the traits and methods—striking for their consistency and relentless rationality—that helped these unique leaders achieve such exceptional performance. Humble, unassuming, and often frugal, these “outsiders” shunned Wall Street and the press, and shied away from the hottest new management trends. Instead, they shared specific traits that put them and the companies they led on winning trajectories: a laser-sharp focus on per share value as opposed to earnings or sales growth; an exceptional talent for allocating capital and human resources; and the belief that cash flow, not reported earnings, determines a company’s long-term value. Drawing on years of research and experience, Thorndike tells eye-opening stories, extracting lessons and revealing a compelling alternative model for anyone interested in leading a company or investing in one—and reaping extraordinary returns.

MM

Recommended by Michael Mauboussin

@skupor Your book is great! (from X)

A Wall Street Journal Bestseller! What are venture capitalists saying about your startup behind closed doors? And what can you do to influence that conversation? If Silicon Valley is the greatest wealth-generating machine in the world, Sand Hill Road is its humming engine. That's where you'll find the biggest names in venture capital, including famed VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, where lawyer-turned-entrepreneur-turned-VC Scott Kupor serves as managing partner. Whether you're trying to get a new company off the ground or scale an existing business to the next level, you need to understand how VCs think. In Secrets of Sand Hill Road, Kupor explains exactly how VCs decide where and how much to invest, and how entrepreneurs can get the best possible deal and make the most of their relationships with VCs. Kupor explains, for instance: • Why most VCs typically invest in only one startup in a given business category. • Why the skill you need most when raising venture capital is the ability to tell a compelling story. • How to handle a "down round," when startups have to raise funds at a lower valuation than in the previous round. • What to do when VCs get too entangled in the day-to-day operations of the business. • Why you need to build relationships with potential acquirers long before you decide to sell. Filled with Kupor's firsthand experiences, insider advice, and practical takeaways, Secrets of Sand Hill Road is the guide every entrepreneur needs to turn their startup into the next unicorn.

MM

Recommended by Michael Mauboussin

3/David Warsh's book, Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations, is also great. In my notes, I wrote down four ways in which we refer to "increasing returns" in economics (from X)

A stimulating and inviting tour of modern economics centered on the story of one of its most important breakthroughs. In 1980, the twenty-four-year-old graduate student Paul Romer tackled one of the oldest puzzles in economics. Eight years later he solved it. This book tells the story of what has come to be called the new growth theory: the paradox identified by Adam Smith more than two hundred years earlier, its disappearance and occasional resurfacing in the nineteenth century, the development of new technical tools in the twentieth century, and finally the student who could see further than his teachers. Fascinating in its own right, new growth theory helps to explain dominant first-mover firms like IBM or Microsoft, underscores the value of intellectual property, and provides essential advice to those concerned with the expansion of the economy. Like James Gleick's Chaos or Brian Greene's The Elegant Universe, this revealing book takes us to the frontlines of scientific research; not since Robert Heilbroner's classic work The Worldly Philosophers have we had as attractive a glimpse of the essential science of economics.

MM

Recommended by Michael Mauboussin

2/Phil Mirowski's book, More Heat than Light, is 30 years old but still fascinating. A complementary read to @ole_b_peters work on https://t.co/J0R37kUY1F. "the progenitors of neoclassical economic theory boldly copied the reigning physical theories in the 1870s." (from X)

This is a history of how physics has drawn some inspiration from economics and how economics has sought to emulate physics, especially with regard to the theory of value. The author traces the development of the energy concept in Western physics and its subsequent effect on the invention and promulgation of neoclassical economics, the modern orthodox theory.

MM

Recommended by Michael Mauboussin

I love Jeffrey Friedman's new book, "War and Chance." I feel the same sense of revelation as when I read "Expert Political Judgment: by @PTetlock. Friedman and Tetlock are collaborators, along with the great Richard Zeckhauser. https://t.co/SlTs29jYdp (from X)

Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.

MM

Recommended by Michael Mauboussin

Rubinstein was a fascinating figure in finance. His book, A History of the Theory of Investments, is wonderful. I also refer frequently to his article in the FAJ, “Rational Markets: Yes or No? The Affirmative Case.” https://t.co/YtHr8xk2QN https://t.co/uJx7K3GX2h https://t.co/dFyu7mxYUn (from X)

"This exceptional book provides valuable insights into the evolution of financial economics from the perspective of a major player." -- Robert Litzenberger, Hopkinson Professor Emeritus of Investment Banking, Univ. of Pennsylvania; and retired partner, Goldman Sachs A History of the Theory of Investments is about ideas -- where they come from, how they evolve, and why they are instrumental in preparing the future for new ideas. Author Mark Rubinstein writes history by rewriting history. In unearthing long-forgotten books and journals, he corrects past oversights to assign credit where credit is due and assembles a remarkable history that is unquestionable in its accuracy and unprecedented in its power. Exploring key turning points in the development of investment theory, through the critical prism of award-winning investment theory and asset pricing expert Mark Rubinstein, this groundbreaking resource follows the chronological development of investment theory over centuries, exploring the inner workings of great theoretical breakthroughs while pointing out contributions made by often unsung contributors to some of investment's most influential ideas and models.